Polls Point to Deadlock as Netanyahu’s Bloc Falls Short of Majority
With Israelis set to vote on October 27, the last permitted public opinion polls show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition projected to lose its majority, leaving both major blocs well short of the 61 seats required to form a government. The surveys paint a picture of political stalemate rather than a decisive rejection of Netanyahu, raising questions about whether the result—if it holds—would mark the end of his long political career or simply another chapter in a familiar pattern of deadlock.
The final television and newspaper polls, published in the days before the legal blackout on new surveys, consistently place Gadi Eisenkot’s new centrist party, Yashar, as the largest single list, typically with 22–23 seats. Netanyahu’s Likud trails with 19–21 seats, a sharp drop from the 32 it won in the 2022 election. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad (“Together”) list sits in third place with 14–15 seats.
When grouped into blocs, Netanyahu’s right-wing and ultra-Orthodox partners total roughly 48–50 seats across most mainstream polls (Kan 11, Channel 12, Channel 13, and Maariv). The opposition “change” bloc of Zionist parties ranges from 52 to 56 seats. Arab-majority parties are projected at 14–16 seats. Averages compiled by outlets such as The Jerusalem Post put the opposition around 54 seats and Netanyahu’s camp near 49–50. One outlier from i24NEWS showed Netanyahu’s bloc closer to 59, but the broader consensus points to neither side reaching a majority.
Head-to-head questions on suitability for prime minister have also favored Eisenkot over Netanyahu in several surveys, with gaps such as 44 percent to 38 percent or 49 percent to 41 percent.
What a shortfall would mean
A result matching these projections would end Netanyahu’s current coalition majority and force a new round of coalition bargaining. In Israel’s fragmented system, that does not automatically translate into political retirement. Netanyahu has navigated multiple elections, corruption trials, and previous periods of opposition or interim government. A hung Knesset has, in the past, allowed him to remain in office as caretaker prime minister while negotiations drag on—sometimes for months.
Forming a government would require either the opposition to overcome internal differences and decide whether to rely on Arab parties (something several of its leaders have publicly ruled out) or some form of broader arrangement that could include elements of Netanyahu’s camp. A unity government remains a theoretical option discussed in some polling, though the political incentives for both sides remain unclear. If no coalition can be assembled, Israel could return to the polls relatively quickly, a scenario Netanyahu has survived before.
Limits of the “political death” narrative
Describing the projected loss of a majority as Netanyahu’s political end would overstate the evidence. His personal brand remains strong among his base, Likud is still projected as one of the two largest parties, and the right-wing and religious parties that form his natural partners have not collapsed. The opposition’s inability to reach 61 seats on its own—especially while rejecting formal cooperation with Arab lists—limits the immediate path to replacing him. Turnout, the fate of parties hovering near the 3.25 percent electoral threshold, and last-minute shifts among undecided voters could still alter the seat totals by several points in either direction.
Israeli politics has repeatedly shown that projected majorities can evaporate in coalition talks and that leaders can outlast unfavorable polls. The final surveys indicate a difficult night for Netanyahu and a high likelihood of prolonged uncertainty. They do not, on their own, establish that the outcome would be terminal for his career. The real test will come in the days and weeks after the ballots are counted, when the arithmetic of 120 Knesset seats meets the practical limits of political alliances.
